Fuel Updates

As of early March 2026, US domestic retail diesel prices have risen sharply, with the national average now ranging from approximately $3.89 to $4.78 per gallon. This marks a significant week-over-week increase, driven largely by higher crude oil costs and ongoing supply concerns.

At the same time, the US domestic truck market is experiencing notable capacity tightening, signaling the end of the long-running freight recession and the beginning of a new “higher floor” for rates. This shift is being driven by accelerated carrier exits and slowing fleet expansion, which are rebalancing the market rather than reflecting a surge in demand. Rates are expected to continue rising. After a sharp, weather-related spike in January, spot rates have stayed firm, with some segments seeing year-over-year gains above 20%.

The Midwest remains the strongest region, supported by steady demand for flatbed and dry van services tied to infrastructure projects, data center development, and steel production. Overall, the first half of 2026 is shaping up to be a transition period, with asset-based carriers likely to hold greater leverage as tight capacity persists.

Reefer Freight:

• As of early March 2026, domestic reefer spot rates are experiencing a mild seasonal dip following a strong, weather-affected start to the year. For the week of March 2nd–8th, national average reefer spot rates ranged from approximately $2.41 to $2.81 per mile, which is slightly lower week-over-week but still up to 27% higher compared to early 2025.
• Capacity tightness in California, Florida, and South Texas has fully eased, with the USDA reporting “adequate” refrigerated truck availability across all 11,000 geographic regions.
• After winter storms in January and February drove a sharp 20%–32% decline in outbound Florida rates, market conditions have stabilized as damaged crop yields lowered overall demand.
• Despite the recent weekly softness, reefer capacity remains tighter than at this time in 2025 due to ongoing fleet attrition.
• The market is now entering a phase of tighter, more balanced conditions relative to the 2025 trough, and analysts expect steady, moderate growth in reefer spot rates throughout the first half of 2026.
• Load-to-truck ratio: As of early March 2026, domestic reefer load-to-truck ratios have surged, reflecting a tightening market with strong year-over-year growth. DAT reports an increase of approximately 8.6%.

Van Freight:

• Domestic dry van spot rates for early March 2026 are averaging approximately $2.36–$2.40 per mile. Rates are expected to remain elevated, with some forecasts projecting around 3.6% growth for 2026.
• Ongoing, stricter enforcement of CDL eligibility requirements continues to tighten capacity. Winter storms earlier in 2026 added further pressure, contributing to higher rates.
• The capacity overhang from 2024–2025 is shrinking quickly as operating authorities decline. Spot rates, net of fuel, are now significantly higher than during the same period in 2025.
• The Midwest remains the strongest region, with average rates near $2.58 per mile. The Texas Trianglecentered around Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio) continues to show strong activity.
• Load-to-truck ratio: The domestic dry van load-to-truck ratio remains elevated due to tight market conditions, with recent data showing a ratio of 8.1.

Flatbed Freight:

• Flatbed spot rates in early March 2026 remain strong, with national averages ranging from $2.53 to $2.59 per mile, representing nearly a 12% year-over-year increase.
• As of early March 2026, the flatbed market is experiencing a significant surge driven by both severe winter weather and normal seasonal demand patterns.
• Extreme winter conditions across the eastern US have reduced available capacity, pushing tender rejections above 13%.
• The Northeast and South Central regions have seen sharp increases in load volumes as demand accelerates.
• Load-to-truck ratio: As of early March 2026, the national flatbed load-to-truck ratio remains extremely elevated, reaching 70.3 loads per truck, which is up from 68.9 the previous week.

We hope you have a fantastic week! If you need any assistance or have any questions, please reach out to your RIM Representative or to our Domestic Team at RIMDomestic@rimlogistics.com.