Fuel Updates

As of early March 2026, US domestic retail diesel prices have risen sharply to a national average of approximately $3.809 per gallon. These increases follow a period of volatility and continue to be heavily influenced by fluctuations in the broader oil market.

The domestic US truck market, as of the same period, is best characterized by cautious stabilization and a slow, grinding recovery following a prolonged freight recession that extended into early 2026. While conditions fall short of a full boom, the market is transitioning from high volatility toward a more balanced, if fragile, state, with modest rate increases emerging. Capacity is beginning to tighten as carrier exits continue, particularly among smaller fleets and owner-operators unable to weather the extended downturn. March is also seeing typical spring tightness, with demand rising for dry van and refrigerated (reefer) trailers across the Southern US, while “frost laws” in Northern regions continue to constrain over-the-road freight movement.

Reefer Freight:

• Based on data from early March 2026, reefer spot rates are experiencing a strong early-year surge, with market conditions significantly tighter compared to previous years, and 7-day average rates reaching approximately $2.94 per mile.
• Spot rates for reefers have increased, showing strong upward pressure as the market enters a transition phase with a smaller, more disciplined pool of carriers.
• High demand is concentrated in the South, particularly Florida and Texas, driven by early spring produce seasons.
• Continued focus on compliance, with operators increasing investments in electric transport refrigeration units to meet sustainability goals.
• While 2026 is showing better balance than previous years, recovery is expected to be gradual rather than a rapid boom, with some demand weakness likely to persist through the first half of the year.
• Load-to-truck ratio: The national reefer load-to-truck ratio is exhibiting high and volatile demand, recently declining slightly from 16.8 to 14.6 loads per truck. Sustained fleet attrition, driver shortages, and seasonal “protect from freeze” demand have kept capacity tight in early 2026.

Van Freight:

• Domestic dry van spot rates are experiencing a tightening market driven by winter weather, capacity constraints, and a slight rebound in manufacturing demand. National average dry van spot rates (including fuel) have been hovering around $2.45 per mile.
• Many professional carriers are enforcing lane-based minimums, often between $1,500 and $2,000 for regional and long-haul shipments, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. March typically brings strengthening spot rates due to the “spring surge” in freight, particularly as construction, agriculture, and retail goods begin moving.
• Demand is described as “steady but not robust,” with recovery beginning in early spring 2026. Volumes are expected to grow slowly in the first half of 2026, heavily dependent on a potential recovery in the industrial and housing sectors.
• Increased enforcement of CDL and English-language proficiency requirements is reducing the available pool of drivers.
• Load-to-truck ratio: The domestic dry van load-to-truck ratio is elevated due to tightened capacity, reaching roughly 9.9 to 11.1 loads per truck following winter storm impacts and carrier exits.

Flatbed Freight:

• As of early March 2026, domestic flatbed spot rates have shown significant strength, with national averages holding well above 2025 levels and rising for several consecutive weeks. The national average flatbed linehaul spot rate has been consistently reported in the range of $2.58 to $2.60 per mile.
• Rates have been particularly strong in the Midwest, where steel production is driving demand.
• Following a 10% increase in volume in February, demand for flatbed services continues to grow in March, consistent with the typical spring surge in construction, manufacturing, and heavy-haul activity.
• While the outlook remains positive, the market is described as a “grind” rather than a rapid expansion, requiring carriers to focus on efficiency and shippers to prepare for higher costs.
• Load-to-truck ratio: The domestic flatbed load-to-truck ratio is exhibiting strong, tight market conditions, with recent reports indicating ratios ranging between 50 and 59. This reflects a robust market, with demand nearly 50–60% higher than during the same period in 2025.

We hope you have a fantastic week! If you need any assistance or have any questions, please reach out to your RIM Representative or to our Domestic Team at RIMDomestic@rimlogistics.com.